Petrol, grants and a R3 fuel levy fight all collide in Wednesday's mini budget

R2 billion. That is roughly what Treasury gives up in tax every month it cuts the fuel levy by R1 a litre, according to economist Waldo Krugell. Treasury already did that from April to June this year. The bill came to R17.2 billion.

On Wednesday 21 October at 14:00, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana stands up in Parliament's Good Hope Chamber to read the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, known as the mini budget. It will not set new tax rates the way February's budget does. It updates the money, what has gone wrong since February, what government can still afford, and where the gaps get patched.

Nine days before the speech, Transport Minister Barbara Creecy told the Road Accident Fund no. The fund wanted its share of every litre of fuel lifted from R2.25 to R3.00, a jump of 75c. Creecy said she would not even take that request to Treasury while she holds the transport portfolio. Wednesday is where we find out if Treasury agrees with her, or quietly finds a way to help the fund anyway.

What to listen for, and what it costs you

Here is every number likely to come up on Wednesday, what it is right now, and what a change would be worth to one household a month. We used a car that fills an 80-litre tank a month, our own working figure, not an official one, so swap in your own.

Figures confirmed as of 19 October 2026. Sources: SARS tariff schedule, EWN, Business Day, National Treasury 2026 Budget Review.

Why did Creecy say no to the RAF's R3 fuel levy?

The Road Accident Fund pays out to crash victims, and it is deep in debt. Its own 2025/26 figures show liabilities of R387.4 billion against assets of R19.2 billion, a net hole of R439.5 billion. It wanted a bigger slice of every litre to start closing that gap.

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Creecy's answer was that drivers are already stretched, and that the fund needs to fix how it is run before it gets more money. Cosatu welcomed her stance. The RAF levy did rise this year, by 7c to R2.25 on 1 April, the first lift in five years. The fund wanted far more than that. For the fuller fight over that money, see why Creecy rejected the RAF's fuel levy request.

Photo: Part Time Security / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Where your R30.25 litre of petrol actually goes

Petrol hit a record on 7 October, up R3.33 to R30.25 a litre inland, the first time it has gone over R30. Of that, about R12.81 is tax and regulated margin, not the fuel itself.

58%14%21%

Basic fuel price	R17.44	58%
General fuel levy	R4.10	14%
RAF levy	R2.25	7%
Other levies and margins	R6.46	21%
Pump price, inland 95	R30.25	100%

Source: Daily Investor fuel price breakdown, SARS tariff schedule, 7 Oct 2026 price.

That breakdown is also why any move on the fuel levy or the RAF levy shows up straight on the pump screen, with nothing to hide it. More detail is in our full breakdown of where every rand goes.

Is the petrol price about to jump again in November?

Early October brought warnings of another R4-plus increase for November. That forecast has been shrinking fast. Central Energy Fund data captured on 16 October points to a rise of about R1.84 a litre for 95 and R1.88 for 93, far smaller than feared, though it can still move before the official price lands around 30 October to 2 November.

The bigger picture is why this keeps happening. Petrol is up roughly 50% and diesel about 72% since early 2026, driven mostly by the conflict between the US and Iran pushing up global oil prices. That is also why Cosatu is pushing Godongwana to repeat the fuel levy relief rather than let the full levy sit on top of an already painful price.

VAT, the SRD grant and the old age pension on Wednesday

VAT stays at 15%. The plan to push it to 16% over two years was scrapped back in 2025, and nothing points to a new attempt now.

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The SRD grant of R370 a month is not expected to rise. February's budget already extended it to 31 March 2027 with R36.4 billion set aside. That date is the real deadline to watch, not this one. The old age grant is R2,400 a month for people 60 to 74 and R2,420 for those 75 and older, last raised by R80 in April 2026. Grant increases come in February, not in a mini budget. For how far R370 already stretches, see what the frozen SRD grant buys now.

Photo: Bernard DUPONT from FRANCE / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

Why your electricity bill could still rise even if nothing changes Wednesday

Wednesday will not set a new power tariff. Nersa already locked in a 9.01% rise for municipalities from 1 July 2026, and a further 8.84% is due from 1 April 2027.

What the mini budget can shift is Eskom's municipal debt relief programme. Municipalities owe Eskom about R94.6 billion, a sum the Minister of Electricity warns could reach R358 billion by 2031. The less that gets sorted now, the more councils lean on ratepayers later.

The debt numbers behind every decision Wednesday

February's budget set out a careful path: The deficit would narrow from 4.5% of GDP to 4% next year, and gross debt would stabilise at 78.9% of GDP before easing to 77.3%. That plan rested on 1.6% growth for 2026. The IMF has since cut its call for South Africa to about 1.0%.

That gap is why tax expert Keith Engel of the South African Institute of Taxation calls Wednesday "a resilience test". The question is whether a promise of no new taxes survives weak growth, a fuel shock and a fund asking for more money.

By Wednesday evening, we will know whether Treasury sided with Creecy or found a way to help a fund that is R439.5 billion in the hole. Either way, the next number that actually lands in your pocket arrives with your December payslip, your next SASSA payment, and the pump price on 4 November.