Petrol price for November 2026: Official data points to R4.58 more a litre

R1,741.50.

That is what a 50-litre tank of 95 in Gauteng would cost from Wednesday, 4 November, if the first October numbers from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) hold. Today the same tank costs R1,512.50.

What changed this month

• 7 October 2026. Petrol went up R3.33 to a record R30.25 a litre inland. This tracker opened.
• 6 October 2026. The CEF's daily gap for 95 fell to R4.31, the smallest since the new count started on 2 October.
• 2 to 6 October 2026. The first three days of CEF data put 95 petrol short by an average of R4.58 a litre. That matches the early estimate quoted in our look at where every rand of a R30.25 litre goes.

How much will petrol go up in November?

On the CEF's numbers to 6 October, 95 petrol is under-recovering by R4.58 a litre.

An under-recovery is a shortfall. It means the price you pay at the pump is lower than what the fuel now costs to bring into the country. The CEF adds up that gap every working day. At the end of the month, the average becomes the price change.

The high end of each range assumes the average so far holds all month. The low end assumes every remaining day looks like 6 October. Both are our sums from the CEF's daily sheets, not official prices.

Diesel at the pump can cost more than the wholesale price, because the retail diesel price is not fixed by the state.

How much will it cost to fill up in November?

This year has already been brutal for drivers. Here is the official price of a litre of 95 in Gauteng each month, with our November forecast added at the end.

R20.10Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

R34.83Nov forecast

See the numbers

Feb	R20.10
Mar	R20.30
Apr	R23.36
May	R26.63
Jun	R28.06
Jul	R26.10
Aug	R25.58
Sep	R26.92
Oct	R30.25
Nov forecast	R34.83

Feb to Oct: official inland pump prices, Central Energy Fund. Nov forecast: our estimate, R30.25 plus the CEF's average under-recovery of R4.58 for 2 to 6 October 2026. Not an official price.

A 50-litre tank cost R1,005 in February. In November it could cost between R1,730 and R1,741.50. That is R218 to R229 more than today.

If you fill up once a week, that is about R870 to R916 more a month than in October.

How accurate are these early petrol forecasts?

Early numbers move. Last month shows how much.

In mid-September, the CEF's data had 95 short by R2.41 a litre, BusinessTech reported. By 23 September the gap was R2.88. The final CEF average, to 1 October, was R3.29. The actual increase on 7 October was R3.33. The extra 4 cents came from a higher slate levy.

So the mid-month figure was almost 90 cents too low. This time the early number is high and the daily gap is shrinking, so the surprise could go the other way.

Three days of data is a small sample. Treat the November figure as a direction, not a promise.

What decides the petrol price each month?

Three things move it.

World fuel prices come first. South Africa prices petrol as if it were bought from refineries in the Mediterranean, the Arab Gulf and Singapore and shipped here. When those prices rise, so does ours. The government said the average Brent crude price rose from $87.89 to $101 a barrel during the period that set October's price.

Then the rand. Fuel is bought in dollars. A weaker rand makes every barrel dearer. The rand was R16.67 to the dollar on 2 October and R16.56 on 6 October, CEF data shows.

Last comes the slate levy, a running tab for past months when the pump price lagged behind real costs. It is now 87.66 cents a litre and can move by a few cents each month.

Of the R4.58 gap on 95, R4.10 comes from world fuel prices and 47 cents from the rand, according to the CEF's own split.

Taxes do not move from month to month. The general fuel levy, the carbon levy, the Road Accident Fund levy and a small customs and excise duty add R6.58 to every litre of 95, whatever oil does.

Photo: JMK / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

When will the November petrol price be announced?

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources sets the price. The Central Energy Fund does the sums.

The new price starts on the first Wednesday of the month. In November that is Wednesday, 4 November, the same day as the local government elections.

The official numbers usually land a few days before. For October, the CEF's release was dated Friday, 2 October and the minister's statement followed on Monday, 5 October. Expect November's official figures between about 30 October and 2 November.

The CEF also posts its daily under-recovery sheet on its website each working day. That is where every forecast, including this one, comes from.

No new fuel levy relief has been announced. The finance minister presents his mid-term budget on 21 October.

Will petrol go down in South Africa?

Not in November, on the current numbers. For the price to drop, the daily gap would have to swing from a shortfall to an over-recovery and stay there.

There is one hopeful sign. The daily gap on 95 was R4.77 on 2 October. By 6 October it was R4.31. If oil keeps easing, the November increase shrinks a little with every working day.

In late September, crude slipped back below $100 a barrel on news of a Saudi pipeline restart and talk of US and Iran negotiations, BusinessTech reported. Whether that holds is the whole story for November.

Photo: Gsalamander / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

What should you do before 4 November?

Fill up on or before Tuesday, 3 November if the numbers still point up. Every litre you buy that day is about R4 cheaper than the day after.

Watch the mid-month figures around 15 October. They will tell you if the R4.58 is growing or shrinking.

If you use diesel, shop around. The retail diesel price is not fixed, so stations can charge different amounts.

If your budget is already stretched, here is why a bank account can slip into the minus even without an overdraft.

The number to watch is the daily gap. It fell 46 cents in four days. If it keeps falling, November could still be kinder than the headlines say. We will update this page as each new figure lands.