Zuckerberg's "basement," Thiel's New Zealand and Altman's gas masks: Silicon Valley's doomsday shopping list

"What do they know that we don't?"

That was the question Jason Bassler put to the AI chatbot Grok on 10 October. Do the rich men of tech, he asked, buy "apocalypse insurance"? Do they stockpile guns, build bunkers with blast doors and buy farmland? He named Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman and others.

The post passed 1.7 million views.

Grok answered with four claims. Each one traces back to a real news story. Here is every claim, where it came from, and what the source actually says.

What did Grok actually say?

It said Reid Hoffman estimated that more than half of Silicon Valley billionaires hold "apocalypse insurance." It said Zuckerberg has a large underground shelter on his Kauai ranch, which he calls a basement. It said Thiel has land in New Zealand and a planned compound. And it said Altman has guns, gold, gas masks and land in Big Sur.

Replies were quick. One person joked about how you would file a claim on apocalypse insurance. Another said that if the apocalypse came, their money would mean nothing.

Fair questions. First, the paper trail.

Sources: The New Yorker (30 January 2017 and 10 October 2016), Wired (December 2023), Newshub, Crux and the Otago Daily Times. Each claim belongs to its source, not to us.

Did Reid Hoffman really say half of Silicon Valley billionaires have apocalypse insurance?

According to a January 2017 New Yorker report, yes. The LinkedIn co-founder estimated that more than 50 percent of Silicon Valley billionaires have some kind of "apocalypse insurance." Fox News and Business Insurance both reported it that month.

It is a guess by one man who knows many of them. It is not a count.

The phrase itself came from a friend. Business Insurance says the article describes a talk in which Hoffman was asked if he would "get apocalypse insurance." The term means a hideaway, often abroad, not a policy you can claim on.

Hoffman said a New Zealand house works as a signal. According to Fox News, he called it a wink that needs no more explanation.

PayPal co-founder Max Levchin criticised the mood in the same piece. He said some of these men feel like "superior giants" who must be spared.

Photo: Mike McBey / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Is Zuckerberg really building a bunker in Hawaii?

Wired reported in December 2023 that his Koolau Ranch on Kauai covers about 1,400 acres. It said the site includes a roughly 5,000-square-foot underground shelter with its own food and energy supplies. The magazine cited planning documents and sources. It said a tunnel links the shelter to two mansions, and that workers signed non-disclosure agreements.

Photo: Paul Bica / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

A spokesperson for Zuckerberg and his wife declined to comment on the size or features, Wired said.

Zuckerberg has since pushed back. Asked by Bloomberg, he said it is "like a basement." He says the story was blown out of proportion, as if the whole ranch were a doomsday bunker.

On a podcast hosted by Theo Von, he said there is a tunnel to another building and described it as storage. So the shelter is not denied. What he disputes is the word "bunker."

What is the story behind Peter Thiel's New Zealand plans?

Three separate things get lumped together here.

First, citizenship. New Zealand's Department of Internal Affairs confirmed Thiel was approved on 30 June 2011. It became public in January 2017. Later documents showed he had spent 12 days in the country in the five years before, against 1,350 days normally needed, according to New Zealand press reports. The minister at the time, Nathan Guy, said he backed the decision.

Second, land. Thiel's company Second Star Ltd bought land near Lake Wanaka in 2015. Because of his citizenship, the purchase did not need the usual foreign-buyer approval, the Overseas Investment Office said.

Third, the lodge. Commissioners acting for the Queenstown Lakes council refused consent in August 2022 for a grass-roofed lodge for up to 30 guests at Damper Bay. They said it was large enough to "draw the eye." The Environment Court later dismissed his appeal, Crux and the Otago Daily Times reported.

Grok calls it a compound. The council papers call it a lodge.

Photo: Krzysztof Golik / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

What did Sam Altman say about guns, gold and Big Sur?

This one is in his own words. In a New Yorker profile in October 2016, Altman is quoted at a Y Combinator party listing his supplies. The list includes guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water and gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force. He also mentioned a large plot of land in Big Sur that he could fly to.

SFist's summary of the profile adds one more detail. If a pandemic hit, his backup plan was to fly with Thiel to Thiel's New Zealand house.

Altman has played this down since. At a 2023 Wall Street Journal event, he said he has "structures" but would not call it a bunker.

Photo: dconvertini / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

Why do people ask what the billionaires know?

The question has fuel. Three of the best-known names in tech each have a story about a remote place, a shelter or a stockpile.

But look at the dates. The Hoffman and Altman stories are from 2016 and 2017. The Wired report is from 2023. None of these sources says any of these men know about a specific coming disaster. They describe preparation, and in Zuckerberg's case a room under a house.

Readers who worry about where technology is heading are not alone. The same unease shows up in our stories on the Pope's message on technology and the AI agents asked to die for a swarm.

Will anyone ever say what they are insuring against?

Grok's answer to "what do they know" came down to a list of properties. It did not give a reason, and neither have the men.

Zuckerberg says basement. Altman says structures. Thiel's lodge plan was refused over its size. Hoffman, the only one who put a number on it, said a New Zealand house is a wink that needs no further words.

Nearly ten years on, nobody has added the words.