Three years after 7 October, the families who lost the most cannot agree on who should lead Israel

At 6:29 on Wednesday morning, Israel went quiet.

It was the exact minute the Hamas attack began three years ago. About 1,200 people were killed that day. Another 251 were dragged into Gaza as hostages.

The families of those people stood in that silence together. In less than three weeks, they will walk into voting booths, and they will not vote together.

Israel holds a national election on 27 October 2026. Many Israelis see it as a vote on one man, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has led the country for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, according to The Washington Post.

How did world leaders mark 7 October?

Messages came in from around the world on Wednesday. One of the most shared came from US Vice President JD Vance.

"Three years ago over 1,000 Jews (including 49 Americans) were brutally murdered in Israel in one of the worst Islamic terrorist attacks of our lives," he wrote on X. "May their memory be a blessing." The post passed 2.2 million views.

His numbers are in the right range. The figure of 49 Americans matches the latest count from the US Justice Department. The White House used 46 a year after the attack.

The full toll was higher, and not every victim was Jewish. In all, about 1,200 people were killed, most of them civilians, according to Israeli official figures. They included dozens of Thai farm workers, students and workers from Nepal and other countries, and Bedouin Arab citizens of Israel.

European Council President António Costa wrote that "nothing can justify such terror". German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised to fight antisemitism "with even greater resolve".

When is the Israeli election 2026?

Voting day is Tuesday, 27 October. Israelis do not vote for a prime minister directly. They vote for a party list, and the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, are shared out by each party's share of the vote.

To govern, a leader needs a coalition of at least 61 of the 120 seats. That is where the maths gets hard.

The fight is between two camps. On one side is Netanyahu's Likud with its religious and far-right partners. On the other is a crowded opposition led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot and his new party, Yashar, alongside former prime minister Naftali Bennett.

Photo: Chris Yunker / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

Will Netanyahu lose the election?

Most recent polls put Eisenkot's party ahead of Likud. None of them gives Netanyahu's bloc the 61 seats it needs. None gives the opposition an easy path either.

Four recent polls show how close it is.

Seats out of 120. Sources: KAN, Channel 12 and Maariv via The Jerusalem Post, Channel 13 via Anadolu Agency.

In the Channel 13 poll, 48% said they preferred Eisenkot as prime minister and 36% picked Netanyahu. Netanyahu has come back from polls like these before. That is why nobody in Israel is calling this race.

What is the Oct 7 commission?

This is the question that splits the country.

Israel has a special kind of investigation called a state commission of inquiry. The head of the Supreme Court picks its members, so the government cannot choose who sits on it. Many families of the dead have demanded one since 2023.

Netanyahu has refused. He blames the army and intelligence chiefs for the failure, according to The Washington Post. Eisenkot and Bennett both promise to set up a state commission on their first day in office.

The pressure grew in September. Haaretz reported that the leader of the United Arab Emirates warned Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a big operation about 10 days before the attack. A report in The Atlantic said Egypt's intelligence chief also warned Israel. Netanyahu's office called the Haaretz report "an absolute lie" and said no warning came from the UAE. On Egypt, his office said he never met or spoke with the spy chief, and he ordered a defamation lawsuit.

Eisenkot answered with one line. Netanyahu, he said, "received dozens of warnings" and ignored them.

Who are the Oct 7 families voting for?

Merav Svirsky lost almost everyone. Her parents, Orit and Rafi, were killed in Kibbutz Beeri. Her brother Itay was taken to Gaza and killed in captivity. She told The Washington Post she is "terrified" this government stays in power.

Adina Moshe's husband was killed in Nir Oz. She was held for 49 days in a tunnel under Khan Younis. She wants change. And after everything, she says she still believes in peace.

Einav Zangauker once voted for Netanyahu. Then her son Matan was held in Gaza for 738 days. She became one of the loudest voices against the prime minister she had backed.

Eyal Eshel's daughter Roni was a border watch soldier. At 6:29 that morning, she was among those who reported the breach. Roni was killed. Her father went on to found a group for bereaved families, and he wants the state commission.

Photo: Oren Rozen / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Why do some Oct 7 survivors still support Netanyahu?

Not every grieving family wants him gone. Some are running for office on his side.

Talik Gvili's son Ran was killed, and his body is still held in Gaza. She joined Likud and is running for the Knesset. Her reason was simple. "I want a strong leader," she told The Washington Post.

Rom Braslavski was a hostage. After his release, he thanked Netanyahu, and he says he will vote for the right.

Tzvika Mor's son Eitan was held for more than two years. Mor is now a candidate for Religious Zionism, the party of finance minister Bezalel Smotrich.

For these families, the war that followed was the answer to 7 October. They want the same hands on the wheel. More than 70,000 people have been killed in Gaza since, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not separate civilians from fighters.

What is the Oct 7 File?

Some families got tired of waiting for a commission. So they built their own case.

They call it the "Oct. 7 File". It looks at 15 years of Israeli policy toward Hamas, pieced together from public records, Ynet reported. The families say the attack did not come from one bad morning. They say it came from years of choices made at the top.

The families put it bluntly. "Those responsible continue with their lives, and we do not."

Even inside the government, at least one minister seemed to accept the blame. On the day of the attack, Smotrich reportedly told colleagues that people would call for them to resign, "and they're right", Israeli media reported.

What happens on 27 October?

On the night of 27 October, the votes will be counted. Then the bargaining starts, and it can take weeks.

If Eisenkot and Bennett can build 61 seats, a state commission could be ordered almost at once. If Netanyahu holds on, he has said there will be no such commission.

On Wednesday night, thousands gathered in a Tel Aviv park for the families' memorial, hosted by former hostage Eli Sharabi. Svirsky, Moshe, Eshel and Gvili have all lost something that cannot be given back.

They stood in the same silence on Wednesday morning. On 27 October, each of them will cast a vote that says what that loss should mean for Israel.