Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia. So why can't it save us from $100 oil?

About 8.3 million barrels of oil a day from the Gulf are still shut in because of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency's August report.

So here is the question half the internet is asking. Venezuela has the biggest oil reserves on Earth. Why not just buy from them instead?

The answer is a set of numbers, and they are brutal.

Does Venezuela really have more oil than Saudi Arabia?

Yes. Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, the most of any country, according to OPEC's 2025 bulletin. Saudi Arabia has 267 billion.

One thing the memes get wrong. Venezuela does not beat the whole Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq alone add up to 621 billion barrels.

But as a single country, Venezuela is number one. On paper, it is a jackpot.

303.00bnVenezuela

267.00bnSaudi Arabia

209.00bnIran

145.00bnIraq

Venezuela	303.00bn
Saudi Arabia	267.00bn
Iran	209.00bn
Iraq	145.00bn

Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025, as cited by AP (Sep 2026)

Reserves are oil in the ground. What matters at the pump is oil coming out of it.

How much oil does Venezuela actually pump?

Just over 1 million barrels a day, according to AP. Saudi Arabia makes 10 to 11 million.

Now compare that with the world. The IEA says global supply was 101.5 million barrels a day in July, and that was 6.3 million below a year earlier. Venezuela is about 1% of that.

The table shows what its barrels would cover, using the IEA's figure of 8.3 million barrels a day still shut in.

Even a full return to its old peak would cover less than 40% of the hole. And that is a decade away, as we will see.

Photo: Daniel Zambrano / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

What does that mean for the price of petrol?

We will not guess a price, but we can show the size of the swing.

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Say Venezuela climbed from 1.0 to 1.5 million barrels a day. That adds 500,000 barrels, or about 0.5% of world supply. That is a small nudge against a hole of 8.3 million.

Brent settled at about $100 a barrel on 7 October. North Sea Dated hit a reported peak of $144.68 in early April. Our own story on why diesel is so expensive in 2026 explains how the shock spread, and our petrol price topic page tracks what it does to the pump.

Why can't every refinery just run Venezuelan oil?

Because much of Venezuela's oil is the awkward kind. It sits in the Orinoco Belt and is extra-heavy crude, thick like tar.

To make it flow down a pipe, producers mix in a lighter oil called a diluent. Then special plants called upgraders turn it into something more normal. After that, a refinery has to cope with it.

Plenty of refineries cannot. Many were built for lighter, runnier oil. Gulf Coast refineries in the US are the big exception, since many were built to cook heavy, sour crude.

That is why this has mattered in 2026. Analysts at Kpler say Venezuela passed Saudi Arabia and Mexico in May to become the second-largest crude supplier to the US, after Canada. Heavy Gulf fuel oil that those refineries used to buy disappeared when Hormuz closed.

So Venezuela is already helping. It is just helping one region, not the whole planet.

Photo: Wilfredor / Wikimedia Commons, CC0

Why did Venezuela's output fall so far?

It used to make more than 3 million barrels a day in the late 1990s. A long strike at the state oil firm PDVSA in 2002 and 2003 led to thousands of sackings, reported at about 18,000.

Years of underinvestment followed, and then US sanctions, which started on oil in 2019. By 2024 Venezuela made less than 1 million barrels a day and ranked 21st in the world.

The damage is not only in the ground. Wells, pipes and upgraders have been starved of money and skilled people for years.

Venezuela's official reserves also jumped from about 80 billion barrels in 2005 to about 300 billion in 2014. OilPrice.com says higher prices made the heavy oil worth counting, rather than new finds.

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And the country has paid a human price. UNHCR counted more than 7.9 million Venezuelans abroad at the end of 2024. R4V now puts about 6.98 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.

What changed in 2026?

On 3 January, US forces seized Nicolas Maduro in an overnight raid. His vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, took over as interim leader. Donald Trump said US oil firms would go in and fix the industry.

In late August, a deal was announced. Rodriguez says it runs for 25 years, covers 17 oilfields and targets more than 1.5 million barrels a day. Trump says it gives the US majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of reserves.

On 2 September, Chevron said it will invest more than $7 billion over five years. It aims for about 600,000 barrels a day, more than double its 2026 level.

Look at that again. Seven billion dollars and five years to add a few hundred thousand barrels. Critics also ask whether an interim leader can legally sign a 25-year deal.

Photo: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

So what would it take to replace the Middle East?

The table compares the two side by side.

Rystad Energy said in January that getting back to about 3 million barrels a day would take more than a decade and about $183 billion.

So Venezuela cannot replace the Gulf. It can only soften the blow in a few places.

When did all of this begin? The timeline

Sources: OPEC, IEA, AP, Reuters, Kpler, S&P Global.

What is the number nobody talks about?

Multiply 303 billion barrels by $100 and you get $30.3 trillion. That is what sits under Venezuela's ground.

Now compare it with the world's daily supply of 101.5 million barrels. At that rate, the world would burn through Venezuela's whole reserve in about eight years.

The oil is there, enough to fuel the planet for most of a decade. The tap is just 1% open.