Trump says no Iran attack before 3 November. Oil jumped anyway

It costs $65.58 to fill a 15-gallon tank in America as of 10 October, at AAA's national average of $4.37 a gallon. A year ago the same fill-up cost $46.66. The gap is about $19, every time you stop for gas.

On Thursday, 8 October, President Donald Trump tried to calm things down. On Truth Social, he wrote that the US would not be attacking Iran "at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" on 3 November. He said the two sides were having "productive discussions".

Oil went up anyway. Brent crude, the world's main oil price, climbed as high as $105.88 a barrel that day, France 24 reported. So what is going on?

Is Trump going to attack Iran before the election?

He says no. His post came a day after The Atlantic reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be used before the midterms. The New York Times reported that planning carried on anyway.

Two things did not change. The US blockade of Iranian ports stays "in full force and effect", Trump wrote. And he said a short rise in gas prices was "a small price to pay" to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon.

The war began on 28 February, when the US and Israel struck Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea gate that used to carry about a fifth of the world's oil, has been mostly shut since. We broke down how that one closure, plus two other shocks, sent fuel costs flying in our guide to the three oil shocks behind this year's diesel crisis.

Why are oil prices going up if Trump paused attacks?

The US is only one side of this war, and Iran has not paused anything.

On Wednesday, a tanker called the Acers was hit by several projectiles. It was 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal in Qatar, well inside the Gulf and far from the strait itself. The UK's maritime agency, UKMTO, reported casualties. The security firm Vanguard said it was the first attack in that area in more than six months.

A day later, another tanker, the Dhalgout, reported a fire about 40 kilometres off Fujairah, on the other side of the strait. Iran did not officially claim either attack. But media close to its Revolutionary Guards hinted that Tehran had pushed its campaign beyond Hormuz. A senior military adviser warned the war could reach "as far as the Indian Ocean".

Photo: U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate Airman Eben Boothby / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

The attacks are getting more frequent. Maritime security sources counted at least 12 attacks on tankers around Hormuz between 28 September and 5 October, Reuters reported. Tanker traffic through the strait on Tuesday was the lowest since late July, according to the data firm Kpler, as cited by Oilprice.com.

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The danger is spreading on land too. The Houthis in Yemen claimed attacks on two Saudi airports, in Riyadh and Abha, on 6 and 7 October. Three people were killed and 36 injured, Gulf News reported.

Oil traders watch the ships more than the speeches. Fewer tankers moving means less oil reaching buyers, and that pushes the price up.

How much is gas right now?

These are AAA's national averages for 9 October.

Gas has eased a few cents in early October, after crude slipped back into the $90s in late September. But it is still up 40% on a year ago. September set a new record, with an average of $4.33 a gallon. The old September record was $3.83, set in 2023, AAA says.

Where you live matters a lot. In the government's weekly survey for 5 October, California drivers paid $6.23 a gallon. The Gulf Coast paid $3.91.

$2.81Jan

$2.91Feb

$3.64Mar

$4.10Apr

$4.48May

$4.05Jun

$3.93Jul

$4.06Aug

$4.36Sep

Jan	$2.81
Feb	$2.91
Mar	$3.64
Apr	$4.10
May	$4.48
Jun	$4.05
Jul	$3.93
Aug	$4.06
Sep	$4.36

Source: US Energy Information Administration, dollars per gallon, all formulations

Gas was under $3 before the war. It jumped by more than a dollar in two months, dipped over the summer, then climbed again as the tanker attacks grew.

Why is diesel so much worse than gas?

Diesel is the fuel that moves trucks, trains, farm machines and ships. It is up about 71% on a year ago, from $3.68 to $6.28 a gallon. Gas is up about 40%.

That matters even if you never fill up with diesel. Almost everything in a supermarket arrives on a truck. When diesel costs more, the cost of moving food goes up, and shops pass it on.

Photo: Eric Polk / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

The US is also running low on its emergency cushion. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels in early August, down by more than 100 million since the start of the year. Rich countries in the G7 have agreed to release another 100 million barrels of crude and fuel. The International Energy Agency is still working out how.

What is Iran's seven-day plan?

It is Tehran's offer to end the war, sent to Washington through Qatar in September. Under the plan, the US would lift its blockade, waive sanctions on Iranian oil and release about $12 billion in frozen Iranian money. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz on day six. Talks on its nuclear programme would start on day seven.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump turned it down. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, now says Iran has received Washington's reply. Its contents have not been made public.

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Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is wary. He says every time Iran negotiated, the US attacked again.

Will gas prices go down after the midterms?

Trump has said so. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," he told reporters on 9 September. He also said it might take "a little bit longer than the midterm".

Not everyone is convinced. Patrick De Haan of the price tracker GasBuddy said: "I don't see any guarantees at all of that happening."

Photo: Funknendai / Wikimedia Commons, CC0

There is also a darker reading. The same Wall Street Journal report said Trump has told aides he expects a new bombing campaign after the midterms. That leaves an open question hanging over the next few weeks: Is this pause a road to peace, or a countdown?

Here in South Africa, we feel it too. Oil is priced in dollars, so any jump lands in our petrol price a month later. You can see what the latest data says about November's petrol price.

What happens after 3 November?

Three dates matter for your wallet.

The first was 14 October, when the government published its next weekly gas price survey. It showed whether the early-October oil jump had reached the pump.

The second is election day itself. Trump's promise runs out when the polls close. After that, the choice is open. It could be a deal built on Iran's plan, which could reopen Hormuz within a week, or it could be new strikes.

The third is the day the first tanker sails through Hormuz without being hit. That is the day oil has real room to fall. The strait carried about a fifth of the world's oil before the war. Open it, and that oil comes back.

For now, the answer is still weeks away. Every one of them will show up on the sign at the pump.