Three oil shocks at once: Why diesel, not petrol, is the real crisis

$1.2 million.

That is what it now costs to hire one supertanker for a single day, according to the journalist Max Fisher. Before this year, the same ship cost about $30,000 a day. That is 40 times more.

Fisher laid out the whole crisis in an explainer that has passed 4.6 million views since 2 October. His case is simple and scary. The world is not living through one oil shock. It is living through three at the same time. And the fuel at the centre of it is not petrol. It is diesel.

What happened to the Strait of Hormuz?

It closed. The war with Iran, which started in February 2026, shut the narrow sea gate out of the Persian Gulf. About 20 million barrels of oil a day used to pass through it. That is roughly one fifth of everything the world burns.

For a while, the world found ways around it. In Fisher's tally, a UAE pipeline carried about 1.5 million barrels a day past the strait. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline sent 5.5 million to the Red Sea. Tankers swapped oil from ship to ship along Oman's coast, about 6.5 million more. Countries opened their emergency stocks for another 2.5 million.

That adds up to about 16 million barrels a day. China closed most of the gap by cutting its own imports by 5.5 million barrels a day.

So the first shock hurt, but it was patched.

Photo: Wolfgang Fricke / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0

Why did oil run short in September?

Because the patches broke. Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia in July and kept attacking Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. In September, Fisher says, they took Yemen's coast and closed Bab al-Mandab. That is the narrow strait at the bottom of the Red Sea, the second sea gate.

Then came two more blows. Strikes hit Saudi Arabia's main refinery at the end of the pipeline. Iraqi militia drones destroyed three pumping stations on the East-West pipeline itself.

By Fisher's count, oil leaving the region fell to about 8 million barrels a day.

China made it worse. It started buying again, and it paid about $135 a barrel when the world price was about $105. This time it only cut 2.5 million barrels a day. His bottom line is that the world is now short about 7 million barrels a day. No stockpile covers that for long.

Why is shipping oil so expensive now?

There is only one way left from the Gulf region to Asia's buyers. Ships go all the way around Africa, past the Cape of Good Hope.

A trip that took 19 days now takes 48, Fisher says. Every tanker is stuck at sea two and a half times longer. So there are far fewer free tankers, and the owners can charge what they like.

That is how the daily rent jumped from $30,000 to $1.2 million. Fisher puts the shipping cost at $26 a barrel, up from about $3. That money is added before a single drop is turned into fuel.

Why is diesel more expensive than petrol?

Oil is not fuel. It has to be cooked in a refinery first. And the world has lost a lot of refineries this year.

Ukraine's drones have hit 28 of Russia's 32 big refineries, in Fisher's count. The International Energy Agency says a Russian refinery was struck about once every three days in the first eight months of 2026. Russia banned diesel exports in July. Strikes on refineries in Iran and the Gulf took out more. China then cut its diesel exports to keep fuel at home.

Photo: MBH / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

Add it up and the world is missing about 3 million barrels a day of diesel. That is one tenth of the roughly 30 million barrels it uses.

50%33%17%

Iran and Gulf refinery strikes	1.50	50%
Ukraine's drones on Russian refineries	1.00	33%
China's export cuts	0.50	17%
Diesel lost	3.00	100%

Out of about 30 million barrels a day of world diesel use. Source: Max Fisher's breakdown, 2 October 2026.

What is a crack spread, and why does it matter?

The crack spread is the extra price a refinery gets for diesel on top of the oil it came from. Think of it as the cooking fee. Normally it sits around $20 a barrel. Fisher says it has hit about $110.

Market data backs him up. US diesel crack spreads set a record above $106 a barrel on 1 September.

So diesel gets hit twice. Once by the price of oil, and again by the shortage of refineries. Fisher says a barrel of diesel went from about $85 to about $210.

$85.00Before the war

$210.00Now

See the numbers

Before the war	$85.00
Now	$210.00

Oil is up about 60% over the same time. Source: Max Fisher's breakdown, 2 October 2026.

That works out to about 79 US cents more for every litre, before any tax or transport. Oil is up around 60%. Diesel costs about two and a half times what it did.

Will food prices go up because of diesel?

Yes. Petrol mostly moves people. Diesel moves everything else.

Trucks burn about half of all diesel, Fisher says. Tractors, harvesters, fishing boats and the trucks that bring food to shops all run on it. His rough maths puts the knock-on rise in food prices at about 20%.

It does not stop at food. Diggers, cement trucks and cranes run on diesel, so building houses costs more. Jet fuel comes from the same part of the oil barrel as diesel, and Fisher expects airfares to rise about 40%. Every container ship on the long road round Africa adds its fuel bill to the price of whatever it carries.

Photo: The Bushranger / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

He also warns about a move many Americans want. If the US banned diesel exports to protect its own drivers, he says, the rest of the world would lose even more diesel and prices would climb higher still.

What does this mean for South Africa?

South Africa imports most of the fuel it uses, so it pays world prices and world shipping. And the long road round Africa now runs right past Cape Town.

The damage is already on the price board. In February, wholesale diesel in Gauteng cost R17.92 a litre. In October it is R31.95, a rise of 78%. Our maths on what diesel at R32.80 does to a taxi fare shows one minibus spending about R117 more a day after October's hike alone.

Government has a lever, the fuel levy, but it is not pulling it. Here is why Treasury keeps saying no to a levy cut, and what one would cost. The next price change lands on 4 November.

What should people watch now?

Watch for any sign that Hormuz or Bab al-Mandab could reopen, any US move to limit diesel exports and the next round of drone strikes on refineries.

Until one of those changes, the shortage is real and the maths is simple. Diesel is the fuel inside almost everything you buy. When it costs two and a half times more, so does the trip your food takes to reach you. The petrol price makes the headlines. The diesel price writes your grocery bill.