England's big review: 1 in 83 young people are autistic, but 1 in 22 children have the label

1 in 83.

That is roughly how many young people in England are autistic, going by the best estimate in a huge new government review. But in NHS records, about 1 in 22 children aged 6 to 11 now has an autism diagnosis.

Both numbers sit in the same report. It was published on 9 October by the Department of Health and Social Care, and the main document runs to almost 600 pages.

By breakfast it was on the front of the Daily Mail, which said the rush to diagnose can damage children. Searches for ADHD were already climbing in Britain the day before. For parents the question is simple. Is my child one of them?

What did the ADHD and autism review actually find?

The review was ordered last December by Wes Streeting, then Health Secretary. It was led by Professor Peter Fonagy, a psychologist at University College London. Professor Sir Simon Wessely and Professor Gillian Baird were his deputies.

Their main point is that there are two kinds of numbers. One counts how many people really have a condition. The other counts how many have been diagnosed and logged by the NHS.

For years the second number was far below the first. Now, for autism, it has shot past it.

1.20%Best estimate, young people

0.24%Diagnosed, age 6 to 11 (2000)

4.06%Diagnosed, age 12 to 17 (2025)

4.58%Diagnosed, age 6 to 11 (2025)

Best estimate, young people	1.20%
Diagnosed, age 6 to 11 (2000)	0.24%
Diagnosed, age 12 to 17 (2025)	4.06%
Diagnosed, age 6 to 11 (2025)	4.58%

Source: Independent review into mental health conditions, ADHD and autism, executive summary (DHSC, October 2026)

Among 12 to 17 year olds, recorded autism has gone from 0.10% in 2000 to 4.06% in 2025. That is a rise of more than 40 times.

The review says there is little sign that autism itself has become more common. The best estimate still comes from a 2017 survey, and there has been no new national count since.

Is ADHD overdiagnosed?

For ADHD the picture is closer. The review guesses that around 3.8% of children aged 5 to 15 have it, and calls that "at best a rough estimate".

Recorded ADHD among 12 to 17 year olds rose from 0.26% in 2000 to 3.88% in 2025, about 15 times higher. So for teenagers, diagnoses now roughly match the estimate.

Some newspapers said the review warns that England is at a "tipping point". The report's own words are more careful. It says it "cannot conclude that overdiagnosis is occurring at scale".

But it also says the balance is shifting. For years the worry was children being missed. Now, it warns, the risk of the wrong diagnosis, or one that was not needed, is growing.

Photo: Cfonagy / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Why are so many children getting an ADHD or autism diagnosis?

The review points to the way help is handed out. In many places, a child needs a diagnosis to get extra support at school, an education plan or help with work later on.

When the label is the key to help, families chase the label. Fonagy has made this point for months.

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The rules also changed. Since 2013 the main medical manual has grouped all types of autism into one spectrum. It also accepted that a child can have ADHD and autism together. That brought in people who would not have qualified before.

There is no blood test for either condition. Most people are a bit distracted, anxious or awkward sometimes. A diagnosis depends on how much those traits get in the way of daily life, at home and at school.

In one school survey cited by the review, about 1 in 5 secondary pupils called themselves neurodivergent. That is far more than have a formal diagnosis.

Wessely has said that a wrong label can do harm too. Some people get told they cannot do things they might well be able to do.

What do experts who say ADHD is underdiagnosed argue?

Not everyone accepts the overdiagnosis story. In March, a group of 32 experts wrote in the British Journal of Psychiatry that there is no evidence ADHD is overdiagnosed in the UK.

The paper was led by Professor Samuele Cortese of the University of Southampton. They estimate about 5.4% of children and 3.3% of adults have ADHD, higher than the review's guess. By that measure, many people are still being missed.

Professor Tamsin Ford of Cambridge, one of the authors, put it simply: "Overdiagnosis is not a problem, but misdiagnosis may be."

The Mental Health Foundation sided with them when the review came out. Its policy director, Alexa Knight, said the crisis "was never down to overdiagnosis".

Both camps do agree on one thing. Many children with real needs are left waiting with no help at all.

How long is the ADHD assessment waiting time?

Very long. By the end of 2025, more than 560,000 people had an open ADHD referral in England. That is over 17 times the number in 2019.

For autism, more than 254,000 people were waiting in December 2025. Over 90% of them had waited longer than 13 weeks.

The wait itself does damage, the review says. Among people waiting under two weeks, about 1 in 4 got worse. Among those waiting more than six months, over 7 in 10 did.

And a diagnosis is often not the end of it. In one survey, 40% of clinicians said there was no ongoing support after an autism diagnosis.

Photo: Shixart1985 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

What is Right to Choose for ADHD, and is it changing?

Right to Choose lets a patient in England ask their GP to refer them to another NHS-approved provider. Often that is a private firm, and the NHS pays.

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Many families stuck on long local lists use it, and the review shows how big it has grown. Independent providers now do more than half of all NHS-funded ADHD assessments, and more than a third of autism ones.

Spending on private ADHD care rose by about 252% in three years. The review says the NHS often cannot see what it is paying for, and it raises concerns about the quality of some assessments.

The government says it will make every ADHD and autism assessment a regulated activity under the Care Quality Commission. That covers NHS, private and self-paid checks.

Health Secretary Yvette Cooper will also write to the advertising watchdog about adverts for assessments. NHS England plans fixed national prices from April 2027.

The government's announcement does not say Right to Choose will end.

Photo: Adrian Pingstone / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Will my child need a diagnosis to get support at school?

This is the biggest change the review wants. It calls for a "needs-led plus diagnosis" system, where help starts when a problem shows up and does not wait for a label.

A child struggling with focus, anxiety or self-control should get support sooner. Diagnosis stays for those who need it, for example when medication may help.

Waiting lists would get a clinical review, so the children with the highest needs are seen first. The review is firm that no one should be dropped from a list without being linked to real help.

The government backed the direction. It promises mental health teams in every school and college by 2029, and £1.8 billion for specialists such as speech therapists and educational psychologists to work inside ordinary schools.

The review also links the rise in distress to social media, money worries and poorer sleep, not just to labels.

What should parents do now?

If your child is on a waiting list, stay on it. Nothing announced on 9 October takes anyone off.

Then stop waiting for the label to unlock help. Ask the school today what support it can give based on what your child struggles with. Ask your GP or local NHS service what "while you wait" help exists in your area.

If you use Right to Choose, check the provider is on your area's approved list, and keep your referral number.

And look after the basics the review keeps coming back to. Good sleep matters, and so does feeling connected to other people. Even small habits count, like the kind of exercise that lifts low mood.

The review's message to parents is clear. A diagnosis is still a door, and it will stay open for the children who need it. It just should not be the only door anymore.