The government cut the petrol levy. You may still pay more on 4 November

The fuel levy on petrol is being cut by R1.50 a litre from 4 November, and petrol drivers are still expected to pay more. The latest forecasts say between 2c and 38c a litre more, depending on the day the data was taken.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced the cut in Wednesday's mid-term budget. It is the second round of fuel levy relief this year. In his words, it will "ease cost-of-living pressures without compromising the sustainability of the budget". Diesel gets a R3.00 cut. Petrol gets half of that. The price rise that was coming is bigger than the petrol cut, so the cut only softens the blow.

We looked at what was on the table before the speech in our mini budget preview. This story is about the part most petrol drivers will notice first, the pump.

Why does petrol still go up if the levy is cut?

Because the cut is smaller than the rise that was already coming. Each month the Central Energy Fund (CEF) tracks whether the pump price covers the real cost of fuel. When it falls short, the price goes up at the next adjustment. For November, petrol is short by more than R1.50 a litre.

The CEF numbers move every day, so we show two snapshots. The first is from 16 October, the second from 20 October. The tank column uses a 50-litre tank, our own working figure.

Source: CEF figures to 16 October as reported by Stuff (19 Oct 2026). Levy cut from Treasury's mid-term budget. Our arithmetic. These are forecasts, not the official price.

Two days later the picture had softened. CEF data to 20 October put petrol 95 at about R1.52 short. Take off R1.50 and the net rise is just 2c a litre, which BusinessTech priced at R30.27 for inland 95, up from R30.25. A 2c rise on a 50-litre tank is R1.

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So your petrol price on 4 November sits somewhere between R1 and R19 more per tank. It does not go down.

How much cheaper does diesel get?

About R1.75 a litre on the 16 October data. That is roughly R87.50 off a 50-litre diesel tank, and about R105 off a 60-litre bakkie tank.

Diesel gets double the cut because it moves trucks, and trucks move food. The same R3.00 cut that makes a bakkie cheaper to fill also touches the price of the bread on the shelf, if slowly. Our look at how diesel reaches your grocery bill shows the chain.

For a petrol driver it can feel unfair. For a diesel driver it is the first real relief this year.

Photo: Tony Webster / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

What would petrol have cost with no cut at all?

On the 16 October forecast, 95 petrol would rise by R1.84 a litre. That is R92 more for a 50-litre tank. The cut takes R75 of that back (R1.50 times 50 litres). You are left with R17.

So the cut is real money. It just does not turn a rise into a fall. On the same data, petrol would have gone from R30.25 to about R32.09 without the levy cut, and to about R30.59 with it.

What happens on 2 December?

The relief shrinks. From 2 December until 5 January 2027, the petrol cut falls from R1.50 to R1.00 a litre. Diesel's falls from R3.00 to R1.50.

Treasury says the relief costs R10 billion in lost revenue. It is paid for by taking back R10 billion that had been moved into the Central Energy Fund. The smaller cut in phase two spreads that money over more weeks.

Here is the arithmetic, and it is simple. If oil and the rand stay where they are in November, then a smaller cut alone adds to the pump price on 2 December:

Source: Treasury mid-term budget as reported by BusinessTech and EWN (21 Oct 2026). Assumes no change in the cost of fuel itself. Our arithmetic.

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Put the two months together for 95 petrol on the 16 October data. If nothing else changes, the pump goes from R30.25 to about R30.59 on 4 November, then to about R31.09 on 2 December. That is 84c above October, or R42 more on a 50-litre tank, while a levy cut is still in force.

Oil can of course move either way. It has hovered around $100 a barrel, according to Stuff. The cost of fuel could rise or fall by December, and that would sit on top of the step-down.

Photo: Edward Middleton / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who actually wins from this cut?

Diesel drivers and anyone who depends on diesel trucks. The AA's chief executive, Bobby Ramagwede, said on 21 October the relief is not enough and could be funded through better fiscal management. He expects the pressure to show up as inflation in the first quarter of next year.

Petrol drivers get a smaller push. Retirees who drive a petrol sedan to the shops once or twice a week will see a price that holds almost flat in November, then creeps up in December.

Our petrol price tracker will carry the official 4 November price the moment the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announces it, due around 30 October to 2 November. The earlier coverage of the diesel side of the cut has the paraffin numbers, and our piece on why Treasury resisted a cut for so long explains why this one took so long to arrive.

What happens on 6 January?

The cut ends on 5 January 2027. The next fuel price change is on Wednesday 6 January.

If fuel costs stay where they are, the last R1.00 comes off the relief that day. On petrol that is R1.00 a litre, or R50 on a 50-litre tank. Diesel loses its last R1.50, which is R75 on a 50-litre tank.

Add up the whole run for petrol on flat fuel costs. The R1.50 you were handed on 4 November is gone in two steps, 50c on 2 December and R1.00 on 6 January. That is R75 a tank back at the pump, all while Treasury has not said what, if anything, comes next.