Is gold a good investment right now? It hit $5,595, fell a quarter, and the big banks say it is not done

Gold costs about $4,170 an ounce right now. That is a quarter below January's record, but still far above the 2025 average of $3,440. So is gold a good investment right now? It depends on why you want it: Big banks expect new records by 2027, but gold has just shown how hard it can fall.

Last updated: 9 October 2026. We update this page as the gold price and forecasts change.

Why is gold going up?

Gold rose 64% through 2025, MoneyWeek reports. It kept going and hit $5,595 on 29 January 2026.

Central banks are the main reason. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, they bought about 400 to 500 tonnes a year. Now they buy closer to 1,000 to 1,100 tonnes, says Tony Kim, who runs metals trading at Goldman Sachs. The world only mines about 3,500 tonnes a year. That leaves much less for everyone else.

Why the rush? When the West froze Russia's central bank money in 2022, other countries saw that dollars kept abroad are not always safe, J.P. Morgan says. Gold in your own vault cannot be frozen. China has now added gold for 23 months in a row, as we reported in the story of China's gold buying streak.

Will gold keep rising in 2026 and 2027?

The big banks think so. We track every major forecast below, with the date it was made, and we will mark each one when its deadline comes.

The Big Fuss gold forecast tracker. Last checked 9 October 2026.

From about $4,170, J.P. Morgan's $6,000 would be a rise of about 44%. Kim calls the slump an "elongated pause", not the end of the run. But note the cut. J.P. Morgan lowered its own forecast once already this year, and its metals chief Greg Shearer says a Fed that keeps raising rates is the biggest risk to the bullish view.

Will gold prices go down in 2026?

They already did. Between 27 February, the last trading day before the Iran war started, and 16 August, gold fell 17.2%. Then September took off another 8.5%.

The reason is interest rates. The war pushed up oil and inflation. The US Federal Reserve held rates at its April, June and July meetings, and some now expect it to raise them. Gold pays no interest. When cash in the bank pays more, gold looks less attractive.

$3,440.002025 average

$4,152.00Late 2025 average

$5,318.00Record close, Jan 2026

$4,174.00Early Oct 2026

See the numbers

2025 average	$3,440.00
Late 2025 average	$4,152.00
Record close, Jan 2026	$5,318.00
Early Oct 2026	$4,174.00

Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research (2025 averages), Reuters (record close, 29 January), BullionVault (8 October 2026)

Is it too late to buy gold?

This is the question investors online argue about most. One would-be buyer said they nearly put $250,000 into gold in January. If they had, they wrote, it would be worth about $193,000 a few months later.

Others warn against waiting forever. People have called gold "too late" for decades, one long-time buyer said. Many describe drip-feeding, which means buying a little every month so no single price matters too much.

There is a darker memory too. People who bought at the 2011 peak waited about a decade just to break even.

Can gold prices crash?

Yes. A fall of about 25% in eight months is the proof. FNB, the South African bank, warns that gold can move sideways for years while stock markets climb.

Photo: Jedesto / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Silver is even wilder. Kim says silver has had single days this year where it fell 20% or 30%.

Gold vs stocks: Which has done better?

It depends on the years you pick. One investor online worked out that $100,000 put into gold in 2016 would be worth about $350,000 now, against about $480,000 in the S&P 500. Stocks also pay dividends. Gold pays nothing until you sell.

Gold earns its place when stocks fall. FNB says gold softened the blow for investors when markets dropped in 2020. That is why banks call it a diversifier: Something that often moves differently from your other savings.

Gold vs bitcoin: Which is the better safe haven?

Both pay no income, and both are bought as protection against weak money. The difference is who buys. Central banks buy about 1,000 tonnes of gold a year, and that is why Goldman sees solid support near $4,000. Bitcoin swings far harder, and investors online often joke about crypto fans who rushed into gold at $5,500 and watched it slide.

How much of their savings do people usually put in gold?

Usually a small slice. The World Gold Council, the gold industry's own research body, ran the numbers in its 2026 research. It found the best share was just under 5% for a cautious mix, 6% for a standard mix of stocks and bonds, and about 9% for an aggressive one. These are general figures from research, not a rule for your own money.

Photo: Calistemon / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

What is the best way to buy gold: Coins, ETFs or mining shares?

There are three main ways ordinary people own gold.

Physical gold means coins like the Krugerrand, or small bars. You own the metal, but you need a safe or a paid vault, and insurance. Some owners like that no bank stands between them and their gold. Gold you can hold also tempts people, as one CIA officer and his hoard of gold bars showed.

Gold ETFs are funds that track the gold price and trade like a share. In the UK, they can sit inside an ISA or pension, IG says. You pay a yearly fund fee.

Mining shares are companies that dig gold out of the ground. Their profits jump when gold rises, but strikes or poor management can sink the share price even when gold does well.

Photo: Carol M. Highsmith / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

What are the disadvantages of investing in gold?

The hidden costs catch new buyers out. Dealers sell coins and bars for more than they buy them back, a gap called the spread. Storage and insurance cost money every year. ETFs charge a yearly fee. And outside the US, a stronger home currency can cut your gold returns even when the dollar price holds.

Is gold a safe investment for new buyers?

In the short term, no. Gold fell about a quarter from its January peak, and silver lost far more on its worst days. The most quoted advice among investors online is to treat it as a long-term savings account with inflation protection, not a quick win.

Is now a good time to buy gold?

Private buyers are answering with their wallets. As prices fell in September, BullionVault clients bought a net 389 kilograms of gold, the most since June 2021. The dip that scared off some investors brought others running.

Gold is a quarter off its high. Central banks are still buying. Private buyers just bought the most in five years. And J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs both say new records are coming. For a metal that just had its best year since 1979, the next chapter could be even bigger.

This page is general information, not financial advice. Speak to a qualified financial adviser before you invest.